Disruption is facing startups over the next couple years and here is a rundown of what I see happening now and in the future. Some ideas are out there, so speaking in tongues will be kept to a minimum, as these are only my opinions. res ipsa loquitur

1. People treat mobile differently than the Internet - if that’s not already obvious. The “if you build it, they will come” mantra was already a little hairy on the web and applies even less on mobile. We are extremely picky about what takes up real estate on our (multiple) devices, let alone what we spend our time on.

Oink launched with money, the biggest name in tech, a great team, enough publicity to drown a donkey, a ton of downloads and it still failed! Ultimately they just built a mobile product few people wanted. For shame!   

2. Customer Development is the assembly line for startups.

Validating your ideas, listening to potential users, understanding what they need - innovating toward that need, assessing your market, testing, pivoting, getting out of the office, etc., is the most important task current companies and day-old startups can undertake.

It’s part of the larger modern trend where every action and undertaking is measured, testable or known before it’s launched.

It’s changing everything.

2.1 Funding.
Investors will always want strong founders and traction, but due diligence will naturally look for customer development and specific metrics for answers. This is because it’s an analytical and measurable approach to investing.

This especially true with the JOBS Act. Now that Joe and Jane can invest, they need dead simple language to compensate for the VC skills they lack - “we listened to this many people, pivoted in this direction, tested this assumption with this website, 90% of visitors do this action, etc., etc.” Expect heavy legislation in the future if this isn’t done.  

2.2 Bringing Balance to the Force
Engineering has always been revered over designers and business-side skills. Hacking is still important, but the pecking order of skills is more balanced. First, we are entering the visual age of technology, which has turned Designers into Rock Stars (11:11). Secondly, finicky users on multiple devices springboards Customer Development into the business, marketing, sales process.

One startup is following this template by having three distinct and equal segments of their company. Their name is Pinterest. Have you heard of them?

Many more are coming.  

2.3 Hot Jobs
Customer Development specialists, in the area of testing and users, will have all the action. These people will be incredibly efficient at running through a feedback loop and will know the customers needs like their own. Yahoo! could take on Google, if they were to focus on this position throughout the company.

The hottest jobs today are at BackPlane because music and art is so closely tied to our personality and culture. Pinterest, because they are app number-one and are defining this role in startups. And Airtime because no one has developed a significant video app and it’s a Sean Parker startup.    

2.4 Temporary Founders
These are startup Hitmen, a mix between founder and advisor, who are highly talented in testing and launching a proven product. They work as a co-founder from day-one, are highly connected, do heavy lifting and help launch a startup or two per year.

Sean Parker was the original incarnation at FB, followed by Jack Dorsey, followed in the future by a lot of successful former founders who have the necessary skills, but still want to create. Some will leverage this position into becoming very well known in Silicon Valley and beyond.     

Closing
Over 90% of startups fail because they didn't find a market of customers. That alarming statistic demands to be resolved. The best solution is Customer Development, which requires assumptions to be tested and markets be found before development begins. It’s Zen.

Failed startups are such a huge problem that Customer Development will change our relationships with customers, how products are developed and founding teams are formed. There will be residual effects in funding and startup structure. The next Steve Jobs will likely be a designer who goes from startup to startup as a founder.  

Types of Customers. 

Our product is very broad. Therefore, one set of users could use it specifically to stay in contact with business colleagues, another stays in connected to family and another uses it communicate with friends or different mixtures of each one.  

End users. Our main consumers are common end users. They play the same role that you and I do many times - as friends, family members and colleagues. At any given time they may be communicating exclusively with other friends, staying in contact with family or keeping colleagues updated.  

Emotional Hypothesis. Humans have an innate desire to communicate with others. We see this with the invention of telegrams, telephones, mail, email, faxes, texting, social networking and so on. People want better, faster, easier ways to communicate with those they know - our product scratches that deep desire. No one likes to be left out. 

Influencers. If none of your friends have a smartphone or our application, then our product is worthless. You need at least two people for this application to be useful. This makes every end user also an influencer - user's have to convince their friends to download and use it. These people include: friends who want to stay in contact with each other easily, friends who may not be on Facebook or have other contact means, parents wanting to keep close tabs on their children, siblings who want to share with each other, close business colleagues who may work in identical departments, on close projects, as interns or other close associates.

Emotional Hypothesis. Influencers are the type of people who value the close connections they have with others. They feel it's an important aspect of their dialy lives to stay "connected."      

Recommenders. These are people within our influencers that have a voice or pull to convince others to buy our product. In a family this may be a parent or a respected or older sibling. Within a group of friends it may be the "ring leader." Within the business world it would be a manager, director, project leader or a great and respected talent. 

Emotional Hypothesis. Recommenders may have many different reasons to recommend a product. It may be out of responsibility, status, selfishness or even pride.   

Decision Makers. The decision makers of this app are really only found in the business world. This person would be a department head who requires to stay in contact with colleagues easier. This would be a later stage consumer.

Emotional Hypothesis. Decision makers will recommend a product out responsibility and a desire or passion to "make things work" in the role of a department head. 

Customer Problems.  

End users. I believe users have shown they have an active need and vision for better, faster communication tools. We see this active need with the decrease in email usage among teenagers - they had a problem and found a better solution by communicating through facebook and texting. 

We've seen a strong vision for a better future in communication in how much we are developing in that arena - Twitter, FB, email, texting, phone, etc. It's almost human nature to search for and build new communication tools. User's also piece together products specific to who they communicate with - texting is for really close friends, media sharing is for fb, important messages are for email, etc. 

Friends. These are very close and important people in our lives, so we want and need to stay in touch whenever we feel like it, but we also don't want it to be a huge hassle. That's why we don't write letters or send telegrams any more - easier and faster methods have been developed. So people use the "best" means to stay in contact (right now it's texting and social networks), but then, as history shows, they move on to the next best thing quite easily (that being our product).   

Family. Family members have a very familial instinct to stay in contact with their parents, children and siblings. This is especially true for parents, who still want to be close to their children - the closer they are to them, the better. (the sibling dynamic I would apply under friends.) 

Colleagues. In a working environment people want two things they want things fast and accurate. This is because a.) time is of the essence. b.) they either love or hate work.

A Day in the life

First, see my post on method entrepreneurship on this blog.        

End Users. The average day in the life of our end user is varied. They are comprised from different age groups, educations, socio-economical backgrounds, jobs, relationship statuses, etc. They download an average of 40 apps, consume 435 Mb of data per month and spend 81 minutes per day or 9% more time on mobile apps than the mobile web.  89% use their smartphones through the average day. They are active in their usage - using it at home and on the go. 89% use them to stay connected - texting, calling, social networking, etc.

How do customers solve their problems today?

Today, customers rely on a mashup of tools, applications, and services to communicate with friends and family. Important messages are routinely left for email, especially when asking for a favor or present news. This is especially true in the business world, where texting and use of social networks, Facebook in particular, is generally rare; and email is the defacto communications service. Fb and texting is too casual.

Texting and general chat is done on the native application and through group texting apps - Beluga, Groupme, ect.     

Friends & Family.  This is the average experience of our common user. They are tech, trend and culture savvy, but as a whole they are becoming less so, as smartphone usage hits the main stream. They have disposible income, but vary on the scale - this income is from work or income from parents.

This will be post one in a long series of posts as I go through the customer discovery phase. This is to my benefit and for others, but I also need a place to put this documentation for others to read and I don't care to use Google docs.

Product Features - roughly in order of launch. First launch in blue. Second in green. Third in orange. Last in black. 

1. Add contacts - start at 15 and max out at 150. Contacts grabbed from the phone's contact list are already complete w/ name and number. User's grabbed from FB will have the name and sometimes the number (this depends on what we get from the api and the settings of the user) - may nix FB altogether due to parsing difficulties. Users should also be added "ad hoc."

2. Parse through and select your contacts as to begin the process of sharing.

3. Include a built in social feature instead of simply adding it on. ??????

4. Message user. Include a subject along with message of any length.

5. Text user. Traditional text tool w/ better UX.

6. Snap a picture from within the app, add a message (location included) and send it out to a friend or groups of friends. (Think Instagram and Postagram)

7. Grab the URL from the mobile browser and send it to app or directly to user and add a message. Will grab an image from the URL and the first couple sentences of text. May push as far as we can go and include as much as possible.  (see the Cortex app)

8. Library for recieved media.  

9. Create groups with contacts. Same tools as above, but sent to multiple people. 

10. Some kind of unique identifier (like the twitter @ or an email address) as a point of contact with mobile apps. 

11. Internet-based version of tool - stand alone and app extension.    

12. Browser. Be involved with mobile browsing - on par w/ FB. 

Product Benefits

1. Message faster with those you may usually message through FB.

2. Stay in contact with friends, family and colleagues easier.

3. Share media faster with your close friends, family and colleagues.   

4. Enjoy a more interactive media experience by giving context to pics and media.  

5. Stay closer to those close to you. 

Intellectual Property

Intellectual property will be used to build assets and protect our product. We understand that having IP is helpful and important, but that also protecting it through the courts is a long and expensive process.

That said, when an idea seems patentable we will first apply for a provisional status and then we will apply to the real patent within a year. This will be to limit lost time and money put towards the patent process. How defensive we are in protecting our patent will be based on the situation. Generally speaking we will adopt a very liberal approach that is the standard of Silicon Valley.  

Right now we do not have immediate plans to apply for a patent on any aspects of the product. This may very well change as we have engineers dig deaper into the technology behind our app. Looking at the above features, those unique technologies may come out of points 3, 7, 8 and 10.    

We have found one patent (US 2008/0051071 A1) that describes a "system and method for sending mobile media content to another mobile device user."

Dependency Analysis

The following is a list of dominos that must fall in our direction in order for us to succeed. 

1. Market must stay open. A strong competitor must not release an identical product before our launch. 

2. Smartphone adoption must continue to rise freely, allowing it to reach a market saturation point. Economic conditions and consumer lifestyles must remain the same.

3. Facebook doesn't create or adopt similar product offerings or makes messaging easier.  

Product Delivery Schedule

On the low end we are looking at 14 months to release entire scope of current product. High end we are looking at 17 months. These numbers are based on team size of 4-5 engineers and will vary based on how well testing new product features goes and if we can license certain technologies for our sharing feature. 

1. Six weeks till understanding our market and product. 

2. 4-5 months till beta

3. Additional 2 months till launch

4. Additional 3-4 months till second release - to work out major bugs and create grouping feature.

5. Additional 4-5 months till third release - unique identifier and Internet presence. 

6. Additional 2 months till fourth release - browser. 

Total Cost of Ownership/Adoption

1. Setup time when App is first downloaded - including adding contacts. 

2. Adding new contacts in the future.

3. Social withdraw from Facebook friends not using the app. 

4. Monetary costs if data plan is over extended. 

After drafting a Y Combinator application with my Co-founder, it’s easy see why the application system exists - it’s simple, direct, quick and informative. YC is looking for information on the candidates, as to cull their list as quickly and as much as possible (as does AngelList and startup incubators). They get the important information they need (talent, skill, passion, experience, pedigree, etc) by asking those direct questions in a simple application.

But isn’t getting into YC similar to landing a job? You are competing against other really talented people, you are trying to get noticed, there’s a “second” interview, you “get paid” and since YC has equity stake in your start-up, so they are like your boss. And start-ups are in the same position as YC. You need to cull the list of job applicants quickly (without overlooking a great candidate), so you can focus your time, resources and energy on the potentially great hires.     

For anyone who hires (start-ups especially) you need a cheat that is simple, direct and gets you the information you need, asap. Find your next employee and close the deal. An application is very elegant solution for after the resume, which can falter in startups.

• Resumes aren’t especially great for early startups, because while they are informative, they aren’t very focused. Early on you are looking for general talent and chances are you won’t find someone with experience specific to your needs. You’re usually hiring young talent out of college and people with a couple years in the real world or a couple killer projects under their belt.
• At a time when building your culture is important, resumes do nearly nothing to predict success. They are usually written with that same academic tone and vernacular that lacks personality. Applications, where the candidate can just write, allows for his or her personality to come out. Resumes ultimately do not make for a good blind taste test.
• From the candidates perspective you want your chance to say “Yeah, I am awesome at what I do and here is why you want me.” Start-up people want to come out of the gate barking like a dog, so let them. Waiting for the interview, and the chance to finally shine, seems kinda herky jerky.

As you can see the standard resume isn’t the greatest for determining the factors that make a successful startup hire. But an application allows you to really focus on what traits, abilities and experience a candidate should possess. That’s the great thing about an application, it allows you to get down to the nitty-gritty. It forces you (the hirer) and the candidate to focus on this singular point - to really consider the question and give it deep thought.

For example. Our startup is looking for a lead hacking talent specific to building a fast and stable mobile application. Chances are we won’t find our answer in the resume alone, but a poignant question or two can help remedy that: “Tell us about the time you made a program more stable?” or “Tell us about the time when you made large changes to your code w/out downing the site?” As you get more specific in your job search, so do the questions you ask.

The application is also a quite diverse tool. The technology is pretty simple and it’s easy to setup, so you can create completely different questions for your positions. Best of all it can work with almost every hiring methodology - interviews with multiple people, probationary periods, testing, etc, etc.     

I’m wearing plywood pants.

Below are the fruits of launching Photoshop CS5 for the first time ten days ago and ruffly ten hours of work dedicated to this particular design. Not only is this the first time working with Photoshop, this is also the first time I've personally designed any kind of website. The closest I've come previously is working with web developers on creating a site. I created this for my father's company (cei-controls.com)

The main purpose of this site is to convince people to ask for a quote (the price to complete a given project). It's equivalent to "checkout" features - the only real quantifiable success. Generally people will need two questions answered - What does he do? How good is he?

With that in mind I tried to answer those two questions through design, content and eye movement or flow. The first question (What does he do?) was pretty easy. CEI offers three primary services, which are made obvious through sharp images and mirrored affects leading to large green buttons marked with that service. PLC (Program Logic Controllers) is in the middle because it's the core service, it has the best margins and the mirrored affect is longer, which leads the eye down the center of the page.

The question of how good he is difficult to answer, if only because it's abstract. I wanted the design to be clean and very modern with a great experience, to denote quality. The second way was to straight up show the companies he's done work. Once a company sees the first three brands they know he does great work.

The menu below the header reflects this two question philosophy. Get a Quote! is a direct call to action that gets the person closer to the website's goal. The Linkedin and Teaching buttons sell a company on quality - my father teaches PLC courses. 

The eye flow is smooth. The eye hits the header and the reflection leads to "Get a Quote!". From there the eye hits the PLC image and leads to the button. The two lines separate the sections and act as a funnel, pointing to some great brands and work history. The FiberMark logo points directly to the footer, where further links and information is found. Finally there's a drop shadow on the footer that leads to the standard copyright statement.

Now, all the things wrong with the design. The header was designed first and is now subdued by the rest of the site. The menu is tall and there may be room for another link. There's no logo or tagline, but these are not absolutely necessary, just nice to have. The footer is tall as well. The text and logos are uneven. More importantly, I don't know if the site tells a great story. I want it to have a more industrial feel. This may come from a "metal plate" in the header that says, "Since 1986".

What I may do is be bold and place a "Get a Quote" sticker/button in the footer. This will push the text over and fillout the footer more, then texturized it.           

Cheers